Counter Terrorist Trends and Analyses - ANNUAL THREAT ASSESSMENT  - Global Threat Assessment

Okkie Tanupradja

On the one hand, Abu Turaife had indicated interest in becoming the “leader of jihad” in Southeast Asia during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic.102 Moreover, after the killing of Abu Zacariah in Marawi City, the Turaife-led BIFF faction launched a retaliatory attack on the evening of his death against the PNP.103 Hence, there seemed to be clear intent on Turaife’s part to become the emir of Dawl. [...] The Arab Spring in 2011, the subsequent Syrian Civil War and the rise of IS shortly after were key pull factors that attracted Malaysians to join IS in the Middle East in the 2013-2019 period.117 The fall of the IS caliphate in 2019 and its subsequent weakening in Syria has reduced its appeal among Malaysians.118 While IS remains active in Africa, there is currently little evidence that points tow. [...] In the past, the SSDI issued its own identification cards in an attempt to assert influence and proclaim sovereignty.129 Although the Malaysian government won the legal dispute with the Sulu Sultanate over the latter’s claim of land in Sabah,130 the possibility of a second Lahad Datu-style invasion by the RSF or any of its affiliated factions cannot be ruled out. [...] In this respect, the independent verification of events and claims by the key conflict actors is important to effectively address the crisis and its implications.206 The outlook for 2024 will be significantly shaped by a myriad of factors, including political developments, the evolving security landscape and the involvement of international actors, with the regime deepening its economic and defenc. [...] When the Philippine government was engaged in the peace process with Muslim rebels fighting for independence in the southern part of the country, its president issued an executive order to set up an Office of the Presidential Adviser on the Peace Process to drive the peace process forward.238 The establishment of a similar permanent unit could serve to crystalise the Thai government’s commitment t.