Occasional Paper No.60 October 2023 Projecting UK net migration

Based on the assumptions that (i) roughly current immigration levels continue, where this is plausible; and (ii) migrants stay in the UK at the same rate that Migrant Journey data has suggested they have done in the past, the model suggests that net migration will fall over the coming years. [...] If the assumptions we make hold true in the coming years, the model suggests that net migration would reach a steady-state level of around 300,000, falling from the record-breaking level of 606,000 in the year ending December 2022 (ONS LTIM, 2023). [...] Application to the UK: Assumptions To apply the model, we need assumptions about the categories of migrants to use, measurement of past immigration, projections of future immigration, and estimates of the emigration rates for each of these categories. [...] Lqong-term projections highlight that the contribution of each migration category to net migration is determined by both the number of immigrants and their length of stay. [...] However, the actual effect of the post-study work visa on stay rates is very uncertain and some of the change in the early part of the decade may result from other factors such as a higher share of international students in higher education rather than further education colleges.