MOST PROTECTED AREAS OF - THE GREATER VIRUNGA LANDSCAPE - ARE HIGHLY VULNERABLE TO CLIMATE CHANGE

EXPECTED CHANGES IN CLIMATE POTENTIAL CLIMATE IMPACTS In this study, future climate conditions were estimated for Impacts were assessed in terms of habitat change (how 2050 using the IPCC’s representative concentration pathway different is the future biome representation of each protected (RCP) 8.5 scenario, which is the one that corresponds best to area compared to current), species loss (what pr. [...] of species will no longer find the protected area suitable in the future) and resource pressure (in which direction is Assuming no further change in forest cover for the GVL: resource pressure by local communities likely to move given community vulnerability to extreme climate events). [...] The Northern and Western parts of the landscape are expected to get relatively Species loss: The proportion of species wetter, while the South-Eastern parts are predicted to no longer find the protected predicted to get drier. [...] © Karine Aigner / WWF-US Potential impacts Tourism Demand: Results Infrastructure at risk of Possibility of expansion: The ranged from no predicted change in climate-related damage: There results indicate that the majority demand for Bwindi Impenetrable is relatively little infrastructure of protected areas within the GVL National Park to 38.9% for Queen at risk of river flooding in the have a low. [...] MEDIUM-TERM ● As the top priority, stronger enforcement is needed to curb ● Rehabilitate and restore degraded ecosystems to restore the rampant harvesting of natural resources within existing ecosystem function within and outside of protected areas protected areas in the face of a changing climate.