Shadow Monetary Policy Committee - 17 October 2023 Shadow Monetary Policy Committee votes seven to two to cut Bank rate

The messsage that Andrew Lilico wanted to send from this chart is whatever the measure of the equilibrium value of money is, the sharp fall in the gap from nearly 10% in late 2022 to less than 2% in late 2023 suggests that the gap is now almost closed. [...] The experience of the interest rate cycle in the US is that the rate always turns before a recession, and he said that he was afraid that this is what is happening in the UK. [...] said that he agreed with Julian Jessop that expectations play a part, and while monetary growth is fundamental to an interpretation of the economic situation, like Roger Bootle the rate of interest is the policy instrument. [...] Peter Warburton commented: the collective disdain of the Bank's MPC for the money and credit data continues to present a source of danger for the UK economy. [...] What is the SMPC? The Shadow Monetary Policy Committee (SMPC) is a group of independent economists drawn from academia, the City and elsewhere, which meets physically for two hours once a quarter at the Institute for Economic Affairs (IEA) in Westminster, to discuss the state of the international and British economies, monitor the Bank of England’s interest rate decisions, and to make rate recomme.