Diversity in the next parliament - Analysis and projections of the ethnic and gender balance of the House of Commons in 2024

This represents a significant narrowing of the gap between the ethnic diversity of the Commons and the society that it serves. [...] Analysis of the candidate selec*ons was then used to project the impact on the ethnic diversity and gender balance of the Commons as a whole, and the different party groups, in each of these elec+on scenarios. [...] Projec'ng the number of ethnic minority MPs in the next Parliament depends on the interac(on of pa-erns of re(rement, of new selec(ons, and which MPs and candidates win or lose the elec*on in each cons*tuency. [...] For example, the new West Bromwich seat is made up of 62% of the old West Bromwich East cons3tuency (won by the Conserva3ves in 2019 with a majority of 1,593), 25% of West Bromwich West (won by the Conserva>ves with a majority of 3,799) and 13% of Halesowen and Rowley Regis (won by the Conserva3ves with a majority of 12,074). [...] A final set of projec-ons of the demographics of the Commons will be produced a6er the elec7on is called and nomina7ons close, with all re.rees and candidates known, ahead of the short campaign.