The Future of Crime in Chicago and the Impact of Reducing the Prison

The Future of Crime in HARRY FR ANK Chicago and the Impact GUGGENHEIM FOUNDATION of Reducing the Prison Population on Crime Rates Richard Rosenfeld James Austin The Future of Crime in HARRY FR ANK Chicago and the Impact GUGGENHEIM FOUNDATION of Reducing the Prison Population on Crime Rates Richard Rosenfeld James Austin November 2023 120 West 45th Street T 646.428.0971 New York, NY 10036 www.hfg.o. [...] A parsimonious multivariate ARIMA model was created that contains the two variables with the most robust effects on crime rates in the Rosenfeld and Levin (2016) study: the inflation rate (adjusted 5 by median household income) and the imprisonment rate.3 The imprisonment rate is lagged one year behind the crime rate. [...] The closer the forecasted crime rates are to the observed rates during the validation period, the greater our confidence in the forecasts for 2021 to 2025, when the crime rates are unknown. [...] 7 Crimes per 100,000 Populat ion The forecasted yearly changes in violent crime correspond closely to the observed changes during the 2011–2020 validation period, with a single exception: the difference between the observed and forecasted change in violent crime in 2016 (discussed below). [...] The models that minimized the mean-squared errors and mean absolute errors of the estimates for both the estimation (1960-2010) and validation (2011–2020) periods of the time series were retained.