The violent and property crime rates for 2022 to 2026 are then forecasted.2 The forecasting exercise is summarized in the text, and technical details can be found in the Appendix. [...] A parsimonious multivariate ARIMA model was created that contains the two variables with the most robust effects on crime rates in the Rosenfeld and Levin (2016) study: the inflation rate (adjusted by median household income) and the imprisonment rate.3 2 Although the start of this period precedes the time of publication, the crime rates for these years were not known when the report was written. [...] The closer the forecasted crime rates are to the observed rates during the validation period, the greater our confidence in the forecasts for 2022 to 2026, when the crime rates are unknown. [...] The forecasted yearly changes in violent crime generally correspond with the observed changes during the 2017–2021 validation period, with one exception: the difference between the observed and forecasted change in violent crime in 2021 (discussed below). [...] The forecasted violent crime rate rises in 2022 and then falls over the next four years to its level in 2019, the year before the onset of the pandemic.
- Pages
- 21
- Published in
- United States of America
