Modelling Greenhouse Gas Fluxes from China’s Agriculture, Forestry and Land Use Sector:

We explored the key features of the different modelling tools and assessed how the underlying differences in modelling characteristics influence the projections, including critical assumptions, regional and sectoral coverage, coverage of carbon pools and gases, and the inclusion of mitigation technologies and mitigation options. [...] Coverage of LULUCF pools As the coverage of greenhouse gases and the methods used to estimate the size of emissions and removals vary between models, it is important to identify the coverage of each of the different land use models. [...] Historical LULUCF GHG information has been compiled from PRC National Communication 201245 and PRC First and Second Biennial Update Report on Climate Change in 201646 and 2018.47 In terms of the developments of net GHG emissions for the LULUCF sector, the GLOBIOM-China, FABLE Calculator-China and MAgPIE-China models all expect a decrease of net GHG emissions and a long-term increase in the removal. [...] Modelling greenhouse gas fluxes from China’s agriculture, forestry and land use sector: Gaps and recommendations 25 What is also striking in the projections for the LULUCF sector is that while the GLOBIOM-China, GCAM5.3 and MAgPIE-China models envisage a relatively smooth development of the LULUCF sink, the FABLE Calculator-China and the PECE-LIU models project strong fluctuations in the net emiss. [...] Their demands are driven by the size of the population, their income levels, and commodity prices, and from these, land and GHG emissions are derived.75 The demand for bioenergy is driven by the energy sector, and agriculture and land systems module demand from water systems.