Russia Tomorrow: Five scenarios for Russia’s Future

Imagine Russia in 2030. Will it resemble today’s imperial kleptocracy? Will it be a Western-style democracy? Will the Russian Federation exist at all? As Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine continues, the questions of what comes next have never been more pertinent. But given the magnitude and fallout of Russia’s invasion, to say nothing of the ongoing threats that a revanchist Kremlin poses to the West and its allies elsewhere, this lack of discussion surrounding Russia’s potential future is increasingly inexcusable. As such, this essay will seek to rectify that inadequate oversight in the broader policy conversations about Russia’s path forward. • Briefly, the five scenarios detailed below include: • Putin’s continued rule. • Putin’s ouster, followed by the installation of a far-right, nationalistic figure or cadre. • Putin’s ouster, followed by a technocratic, if still largely antidemocratic, regime. • Putin’s ouster, followed by the rise of a liberal, thoroughly pro-Western government. • Russian Federation state fracture. These sections include potential developments leading to and through each scenario—imagining what such a scenario would entail—as well as how the West should respond strategically if the scenario comes to pass, as well as potential time horizons.