Working Group Paper #16

Export controls, however, present major enforcement challenges due to the complexity of global supply chains, the fact that large economies such as China are not part of the sanctions coalition, and because of a lack of experience and institutional resources on the part of the coalition countries. [...] These developments underscore the magnitude of the setbacks that Russia has encountered and substantial time and resources that will be required for the rebuilding of its military in the aftermath of the war. [...] The trade with export-controlled goods clearly continues despite considerable media attention devoted to specific cases of foreign companies’ components discovered in Russian weapons and the circumvention schemes that allow Russia to acquire critical inputs for its military industry.11 On the line is not only the freedom and security of the Ukrainian people, but the credibility of the sancHons reg. [...] • Overall dynamics: Imports of critical components from selected companies displayed similar dynamics in 2022 as the broader samples: a sharp drop in the immediate aftermath of the imposition of export controls, and a noticeable rebound in the second half of the year as Russia adapted to the restrictions. [...] The current case marks the first instance since the end of the Cold War of a coalition of countries collectively applying an extensive set of export controls to undermine a country’s industrial and military capacity.28 During the Cold War, the West regulated the export of strategic goods to the Soviet Union and its allies through the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls (CoCom),.