The Rise of Reform

Since Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has barely budged. It was 20 points in December 2022 and it’s 20 points now. Both parties are, though, doing a bit worse. The Tories are averaging 24% down from 27%, and Labour 44% down from 47%. This is more of a problem for the Conservatives than Labour because they are also fighting a lot of seats where the main challenger is the Liberal Democrats, whose support has risen slightly.