We estimate employment for Northern Ireland based on the employee data from NISRA by assuming that the same ratio between employees and total employment applies in the UK. [...] The data for this exercise is derived from the 2021 Census for England and Wales, whereas the previous data draws from the Business Register and Employment Survey (BRES). [...] Given the extent of regulated exports to the EU+, all of which could be changed by the CBAM (the vector ∆𝑓), we compute the total possible impact on gross output using the following equation, ∆𝑥 = (𝐼 − 𝐴)!"∆𝑓 where Δ𝑥 is the possible change in gross output and (𝐼 − 𝐴)!" denotes the Leontief inverse matrix, representing the amount of gross output from one sector that is produced to satisfy. [...] 𝐼 is the identity matrix and 𝐴 is the input-output coefficient matrix.1 ∆𝑓 denotes the possible drop in exports in the UK. [...] The matrix 𝐴 reports the share of the total value of domestic product j that is accounted for by inputs of product i.
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