Will the CBAM fill the UK’s fiscal gap?

Consequently, the UK will raise revenue on less than one-tenth of the imports on which the EU will do so, so that the revenue it raises is very unlikely to exceed 10 percent of the predictions for the EU. [...] For the EU, the European Commission estimates revenues of around €2 billion for 2028,2 Wood Mackenzie, say $9 billion a year by 2030, and S&P ‘more than US$80 billion per year by 2040.’ The origins of some of the differences are easily described, although, in the absence of details of the calculations, not exactly quantifiable.3 Facts and assumptions The EU’s CBAM revenue collection will be phased. [...] 4 This says that by the end of 2025 ‘the Commission will undertake a full review of the implementation of the CBAM.’ It will ‘look carefully into the possibility of extending CBAM to other goods and sectors covered by the EU ETS at risk of carbon leakage (see Article 30(2) of the CBAM Regulation). [...] The CBAM is going to raise the prices of the products it regulates in the EU because it will raise import prices, and the corresponding phasing out of free allowances in the ETS will raise domestic costs. [...] What about the UK? Finally, how can we move from predictions for the EU to predicting the revenue that the UK CBAM might generate? We know next to nothing about the UK CBAM beyond its coverage, which includes all the sectors in the EU CBAM except electricity and with glass and ceramics added.