The Impact of Migration on Future Population Change – Global demographic projections with integrated immigration and emigration assumptions

Given the population at time A and B, and the known number of births and deaths during the period AB, net international mobility is the increase or decrease in population size not explained by births and deaths (error of closure). [...] Since the date of entering the country of destination is not easily obtainable, the change in stock between two censuses is then taken as the amount of mobility and the period between the two censuses as the estimated time of movement. [...] The statistical office of the EU uses net migration assumptions and projects Spain’s total population to peak at about 58.5 in 2045 million with almost the same population size in 2050.14 Figure 16: Spain: Total population by variants, 1990-2050 Table 9: Spain: Total population by variants, 2020-2050 Time Bilateral UN Medium UN Past UN Zero migration estimates migration projections 2020 47,329,954. [...] The statistical office of the EU uses net migration assumptions and projects the Netherland’s total population to peak at about 18.8 million in 2045 with almost the same population size in 2050.17 17 26 Figure 22: The Netherlands: Total population by v. [...] The statistical office of the EU uses net migration assumptions and projects the EU population to peak at 453 million already in 2026 and then slowly decline to 447 million in 2050.21 20 As the UN’s projection without net migration starts on 1.