CLIMATE-FRAGILITY RISK BRIEF - THE ARCTIC

The Arctic faces several climate tipping points, including permafrost thaw, the stability of the Greenland ice sheet, and the stability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), commonly referred to as the Gulf Stream. [...] The Russian Federation will hold the Chairmanship of the Arctic Council, as well as of the two voluntary bodies of the Arctic Coast Guard Forum and the Arctic Economic Council, from May 2021-May 2023. [...] Negotiations are currently underway for the creation of an international legally binding instrument under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the conservation and use of marine biological diversity in areas beyond national jurisdiction, commonly referred to as the BBNJ agreement. [...] An additional recommendation is for the creation of a marine science body for the Central Arctic Ocean, to fulfill the role of the Joint Program of Scientific Research and Monitoring mandated by the Agreement. [...] To the contrary, they are of immense consequence to international security and stability because of the risks associated with environmental changes, the risks to human and civil security, and the resulting geopolitical risks.