THE NEXT PARADIGM-SHATTERING THREAT? - RIGHT-SIZING THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF GENERATIVE AI ON TERRORISM

EDU The Next Paradigm-Shattering Threat? Right-Sizing the Potential Impacts of Generative AI on Terrorism David Wells Middle East Institute Washington, DC March 2024 ABOUT THE MIDDLE EAST INSTITUTE The Middle East Institute is a center of knowledge dedicated to narrowing divides between the peoples of the Middle East and the United States. [...] 3 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY • Over the past year and a half, the rapid expansion in the availability and accessibility of generative artificial intelligence (AI) tools has prompted a range of potential national and international security concerns, including the possible abuse of generative AI by terrorists and violent extremists. [...] What Are Potential Use Cases? Existing Capabilities Despite these caveats — and the relatively limited evidence of terrorist or violent extremist use of Much of the analysis so far has focused on how generative AI to date — it is clear that generative AI generative AI could assist in the creation and offers concrete current capabilities that have yet to dissemination of terrorist and violent extre. [...] Although understanding, monitoring, and adapting to terrorist and violent extremist use of generative AI ought Clearly, generative AI offers terrorists and violent to be a policy priority moving forward, arguably the extremists the potential to optimize existing capabilities, greater impact on the counter-terrorism field will be from and at this stage of the technology’s development, a the impacts. [...] Most of these initiatives are broad in scope, however, focusing on AI writ large rather than generative AI Conclusions and specifically, and few have focused to any great extent on Recommendations terrorism, due to the greater salience of other AI-related threats and challenges along with the relative lack of data Given both the direct and indirect impacts of generative on generative AI and terror.