Meanwhile, JONGLE Ibetween National Salvation Front (NAS) and conflict and who controls oil fields in WESTERN intercommunal violence escalated across BAHR EL GHAZAL 3 the government in Central Equatoria, in Jonglei Abyei box and beyond. [...] COMING WEEKS AND MONTHS nominations within the ruling party or between rival candidates including from SPLM-IO, 3 South Sudan could further 1 Violence could escalate in the run could fuel violence eg, in Western Equatoria, in disintegrate along ethnic lines up to and during elections Western Bahr el Ghazal, between Dinka elites Authorities will likely continue to struggle to pay President Kiir wil. [...] Bahr el Ghazal, between government factions The National Electoral Commission (NEC) will in Greater Pibor Administrative Area, and/ Ethnic violence will likely rise, especially in Flashpoint likely face major obstacles to deliver on the or between the SPLM-IO and government in places like Jonglei and Abyei where fighting electoral calendar, including demarcating new Southern Unity state. [...] emergent conflicts and crises in the next three for a new constitution and the unification of to six months in a clear, accessible format, TO WATCH Climate disasters set to worsen previously warring armed forces, or else Sudan 2 Sudan’s civil war could spill identifying triggers, key dates to watch and situation; Jonglei State and Abyei area. [...] It will also heighten the risk of Kiir being of political constituencies; possible extension Buay and Nuer fighters will likely continue ousted, and further weaken the state appara- of political transition; and ways SPLM-IO- fighting alongside the RSF, raising the possibility tus.
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