NHS England’s modelling for the Long Term Workforce Plan

We were not able to attempt to replicate the triangulation process and test whether the calculations in the model were implemented as intended due to the lack of technical documentation and the complex and undocumented manual adjustments made in this part of the modelling pipeline. [...] 2.20 NHSE analysts told us that the complexity of the triangulation process, including the manual adjustments, meant that this part of the modelling pipeline could not be brought into the Python model during the time frame of the model production. [...] 2.25 We were not able to attempt to replicate the triangulation process and test whether the calculations in the model were implemented as intended due to the lack of technical documentation and the complex and undocumented manual adjustments made in this part of the modelling pipeline. [...] 2.26 The final part of the modelling pipeline was the preparation of the modelling outputs, summarising the supply and demand ranges for each profession, to publish in the LTWP. [...] 2.28 We are concerned that the complexity of the whole modelling pipeline, from input models through to the numbers published in the LTWP, created a risk to the validity of the outputs of the model because any dependencies or inconsistencies between different parts of the modelling may not be fully understood.