Nearly 40% of remote regions in the OECD are already shrinking. And there will be even more shrinkage as populations continue to age and the young continue to move to large cities. In regions far from a metropolitan area, the population is expected to shrink by 2.3% between 2020 and 2040. With new applications of AI taking root in all walks of life, can it provide solutions to help shrinking places?
New heights for healthcare delivery?
Population decline and ageing can create pressures on public services in shrinking regions. These pressures include increased demand for healthcare and challenges in sustaining schools. By 2035, the number of cardiology service locations per user is expected to increase on average by 20% compared to 2011. The need for primary and secondary schools in sparse rural areas could fall by 8-20% over the same period. The integration of AI into various sectors offers unprecedented opportunities to support these services.
Down under and out the back
AI-based systems can help detect diseases at their earliest stages, facilitate diagnosis and personalise treatment plans by analysing large amounts of patient data. In the remote Outback of Australia, where doctors are scarce, a company called DrumBeat AI uses images of patients’ inner ears to detect diseases and hearing loss in Indigenous children, who have the highest rates of ear disease in the world.
AI-powered telemedicine platforms can enable people living in remote areas to receive medical consultations without having to travel long distances. AI can also be used to calibrate treatment programmes based on a patient’s predicted response to different medications, to make adjustments based on changes in their health status, and to help patients avoid medication errors.
AI systems can enhance autonomy and safety for old-age people. Devices, sensors, and wearables can increase the detection rates of health risks or alert third parties in case of a fall or an emergency. In addition, AI can also support healthier lifestyles and tackling loneliness. A partnership between the New York State Office for the Ageing and Intuition Robotics has achieved a 95% reduction in loneliness among thousands of old people using ElliQ, an AI-powered care companion robot designed to proactively engage in conversations or suggest potential activities such as physical exercise or quiz games.
For healthcare professionals, overburdened in shrinking regions by staff shortages, AI can reduce time pressures and assist them in tasks such as examining X-rays, scans, and other digital images, writing summaries and medical reports, or filing insurance claims and other paperwork.
An enlightenment for educational services?
Meanwhile in education, schools in sparsely populated areas face many challenges, including limited resources and a shortage of qualified teachers, which exacerbate inequalities and jeopardise pupils’ opportunities. AI-based educational tools can provide more didactic and personalised learning experiences, including through multimedia content and game-based learning, as well as measure understanding and performance, provide immediate feedback and improve pupil motivation. It can also provide real-time analytics and support to both teachers and parents.
A study by Inspired Education Group – across 26 schools in 12 different countries – found that students using an AI platform creating personalised pathways for pupils, both for their classwork and homework, saw an improvement in performance of 8.12 percentage points on average. AI can make virtual classrooms, online courses, and interactive learning platforms accessible from remote regions.
Recognising persistent rural-urban divide in connectivity speeds – in only 7 out of 26 OECD countries, more than 80% of households in rural regions have access to a high-speed connection – AI tools can also be designed to work offline and allow rural students and teachers to always have access to educational resources.
Reducing the risk
However, shrinking regions are often precisely those that fall behind the curve in adopting new approaches and technologies, due to constrained finances and a lack of skills and systems. It will therefore be important to ensure there is support from central governments for them to deploy AI safely and sustainably.
This is particularly important given the risks AI can pose if the right governance systems are not in place. These include:
- Risks of poor outcomes due to bias in algorithms, poor quality data or inappropriate use.
- Leaks of personal data due to breaches of privacy and security in data collection or in execution of AI algorithms.
- Increased pressures on already overstretched public services – having to deliver across multiple platforms.
Bringing home the benefits
In short, AI solutions can help shrinking regions to mitigate cost pressures by making public services smarter, more efficient, and more personalised. That applies beyond healthcare and education services, to other services too, including waste management, recycling or cleaning, and mobility (e.g. through demand-responsive transportation (DRT) systems) and improvements to the efficiency of local public administrations. To seize the opportunity, governments must put in the hard yards of building capacity first – in the regions that need it most.
Marc Bournisien de Valmont
Marc Bournisien de Valmont is a Policy Analyst in the Regional Development and Multi-level Governance Division in the OECD Centre for Entrepreneurship, SMEs, Regions, and Cities. He coordinates the OECD project “Shrinking Smartly and Sustainably” on demographic change and works on service delivery in rural areas, regional attractiveness, and cross-border regions.
Marc holds a Master’s degree in International Relations and a Bachelor’s degree from Sciences Po Paris. Prior to joining the OECD, Marc has worked as a Research Fellow for the think-tank Institut Montaigne and as an Analyst at the French Ministry of Defense.