SAUDI-HOUTHI AGREEMENT: FOUR SCENARIOS AND THEIR POTENTIAL IMPACT - ARI HEISTEIN

Since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war in October 2023, the group has launched hundreds of rockets and missiles against international shipping in the Red Sea and at the Israeli port city of Eilat. [...] Saudi Arabia seeks to exercise some control to prevent Out of concern for the humanitarian situation in Yemen, the “compensation” from being diverted toward the the fragile Saudi-Houthi agreement, and the desire Houthi military budget, but the Houthis’ stranglehold on to avoid getting drawn into another Middle Eastern the economy in areas under their control prevents Riyadh quagmire, the US and it. [...] familiar with operating in challenging environments such as Iraq.16 The Houthis agree to provide Anton with the • China, Russia, and Iran may not be pleased with rights to oversee the production and sales of energy everything the Houthis do in the Red Sea and beyond, in areas under their control on the basis of a secretive but they will likely try to influence Sana’a and harness revenue-sharing ag. [...] the internationally recognized government of Yemen and this opens a door for the Houthis to be recognized as the • As the Houthi threat grows, Saudi Arabia and the UAE legitimate rulers of northern Yemen. [...] First, in the the militias they train, the Houthis are able to expand their eyes of the Yemeni public, the regime can now claim influence and the threat they posed to Western interests.