Legatum Institute Briefing Paper: Who’s Voting Reform?

Matt Goodwin Senior Adviser LEGATUM INSTITUTE BRIEFING PAPER: WHO’S VOTING REFORM? Executive Summary The rise of Reform UK represents the most serious challenge to the United Kingdom’s established parties since the rise of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) and the Brexit Party. [...] MATT GOODWIN | LEGATUM INSTITUTE | MARCH 2024 Introduction The rise of Reform UK represents the most significant electoral challenge to the established political parties since the rise of the UK Independence Party (UKIP) in the early 2010s, and its main successor, the Brexit Party, in 2019. [...] Turning to the political backgrounds of Reform UK voters, our results reveal the overwhelming majority voted for the Conservative Party at the last general election, underlining the threat this new party poses to the incumbent Conservative Party. [...] Reform Voters: What Do They Think? In terms of organisation and personnel, the Reform party is rooted in the anti-EU campaigns that were led by the Brexit Party in 2019, the UK Independence Party during the 2000s and the early 2010s, and, in an even earlier era, movements like the Anti-Federalist League and the Referendum Party in the 1990s. [...] Reform UK, therefore, appears to be benefitting not just from the remnants of the Brexit Party and UKIP but a much larger reservoir of public concern about the scale and effects of large- scale immigration, especially the liberalisation of the immigration regime following the vote for Brexit.