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▪ At secondary, Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East, and London are projected to have the largest falls in pupil numbers, whereas in the West Midlands, the South East, and the East of England the number of pupils is projected to rise, with the latter seeing the greatest rise of 1.8 per cent. [...] Based on the structure of the NFF in 2023-24 and pupil projections at the national and local authority level, we have modelled the impacts of this projected change in the pupil population on school funding up to 2029-30. [...] The same is true for NFF ‘baselines’ – calculations of pupil counts and the sum the school would have received through the NFF the previous year, required to apply the protective mechanisms of the NFF. [...] Yorkshire and the Humber, the North East, and London are projected the largest fall in pupil numbers, whereas the West Midlands, the South East, and the East of England are projected rises, with the latter seeing the greatest rise of 1.8 per cent. [...] 20 Figure 2.4: Percentage change in pupil numbers at regional level, primary and secondary, 2022/23 – 2028/29 Local authority projections At the local authority level, we can see further differences in the changes in pupil numbers across the country, and in particular the sharp fall in pupil numbers projected in London.