The Geography of Pandemic-Era Home Price Trends and the Implications for Affordability

3 • Did differences in the geography of home price growth persist into 2023 as the housing market cooled? • What has the disparate rise in home prices meant for housing affordability in previously affordable market types? Using county-level data from Zillow and the American Community Survey, we find that home values in the three years after the start of the pandemic rose most on average in rural a. [...] Figure 4: After the Start of the Pandemic, Home Values Rose Most Rapidly in Lower-Density Areas and Rural Counties Notes: Estimates of average typical home value are weighted by the number of homeowners and use the 2017 sample of counties described in the paper. [...] 11 Figure 5: Home Price Growth Was Most Robust in Rural Counties in the West and Northeast Notes: Estimates of average typical home value are weighted by the number of homeowners and use the 2017 sample of counties described in the paper. [...] The future trajectory of the geography of home prices depends on numerous factors, including the continued prevalence of remote work, the relative affordability of different geographies, the ability of the existing stock in those places to accommodate new households, and the amount and type of new housing that can be added to these market types. [...] In the latter half of 2023, typical home values resumed rising even in the face of higher interest rates, but home prices again rose fastest in the higher-density portions of large metro areas, a reversal of the pandemic period.