PARIS REPORT 2 - Europe’s Economic Security

His research spans macroeconomics, finance, international economics and economic history and has been published in the American Economic Review, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, the Review of Economic Studies, the Journal of Political Economy, the Journal of Monetary Economics, the Journal of International Economics, and several other journals. [...] The intuition behind this result is that the welfare costs of an end of the trade integration between China and the ‘Friends’ group are mitigated by the fact that the Friends continue to trade with each other and with ‘Neutrals’, and that these groups are sufficiently large and diverse to preserve most of the gains from trade. [...] At the same time, the combination of a heightened sense of the risks created by a concentrated exposure to China and the structural slowing of the Chinese economy might push in the other direction. [...] The first is the obvious risk, already mentioned in the previous section, of a broad disruption of European trade with the United States in the event of a return of Donald Trump to the US presidency. [...] 4 HOW TO DE-RISK As the outbreak of COVID-19 revealed dangerous vulnerabilities and called for a reassessment of the international economic relations of the European Union, rising US pressures under the Trump presidency and the increasingly aggressive behaviour of the Chinese government drew European policymakers’ attention to the threat of economic coercion and called for a redefinition of the to.