May 2024 20 / 41 Dynamic scoring: Elmendorf (2015) “Even if the macroeconomic effects of a proposal with limited budgetary impact are small relative to the overall economy, their feedback effect on the federal budget could still be large relative to the nonmacroeconomic budgetary impact of the proposal. [...] Because that outcome would be highly implausible, CBO and JCT relaxed the assumption of fixed GDP and employment and incorporated into the cost estimate their projections of the legislation’s direct effects on the U. [...] research institution or foreign equivalent The cap exemption applied to the principal immigrant as well as their accompanying spouse and minor children May 2024 26 / 41 Section 80303 population modeling: Esche, Neufeld, Williams (2023) Attempt to (roughly) estimate how Section 80303 would affect the number and characteristics of people in the U. [...] population by immigration status, education, country-of-origin, gender, and age Starting point is recognition of the fact that an increase in the number of green cards made available by law does not translate into a one-for-one increase in the number of people in the U. [...] May 2024 30 / 41 Budgetary estimates: Elmendorf and Williams (2024) May 2024 31 / 41 Budgetary estimates: Elmendorf and Williams (2024) Over the following decade, the difference between the conventional approach and population-change approach estimates is even larger: swinging from a $74 billion increase in the budget deficit to a $634 billion decrease May 2024 32 / 41 May 2024 33 / 41 May 2024 34.
Authors
- Pages
- 41
- Published in
- United Kingdom
