Guinea-Bissau Economic Update Spring 2024 - Retiring the Fiscal Risk (English)

Economic growth that matches potential continues to evade Guinea-Bissau as the international cashew market conditions remain testing. Another difficult cashew campaign limited the translation of high production into economic growth. While cashew production reached260 thousand tons, the highest production yield on record, only 170 thousand tons were exported by the end of 2023. It is estimated that the remaining 90 thousand tons weresmuggled out of the country into neighboring Senegal and Guinea. Consequently, economic growth remained below potential at 4.2 percent. Inflation remained stubbornly high at 7.2 percent y/y for 2023, but remittances and tax evasion from cashew smuggling limited the impact of this on disposable income and helped contribute to private consumption.