There are two main perspectives on the energy transition: the old incumbent view
of business-as-usual; and the new insurgent view of exponential change. At heart this is the longstanding battle of commodities versus technologies. Design
and technologies beat commodities because they enjoy learning curves and are
limitless. So costs fall over time, and growth is exponential. New energy comes from manufactured, modular, scalable, clean technologies; old
energy is from centralized, heavy, dirty commodities. Old energy forecasting has failed in the face of the new energy reality. Linear
forecasts constrained by barriers to growth have consistently been overwhelmed
by exponential change. There are three key levers in the energy transition: Renewables; Electrification; and
Efficiency. In this slidedeck, the orthodox view about energy transition is shown to be wrong: the Paris targets are in reach because the energy system is being transformed by the exponential forces of
renewables, electrification, and efficiency.
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