LEADING GDP INDICATOR FORECAST FOR GEORGIA – MAY 2024 Authors: Tornike Surguladze and Davit Keshelava - Economic growth stays strong despite risks: export/import drops, remittance

• According to March data, the annual growth in 2024 is projected to be 7.1% in the worst-case scenario and 8.8% in the best-case or average long-term growth scenario. [...] In March, the Georgian Lari depreciated against the Dollar (1.3% in monthly terms), GEL/EUR (1% in monthly terms), against the Ruble (0.4% in monthly terms). [...] The depreciation of the Georgian Lari negatively impacts the Georgian population due to heavy reliance on imports and significant levels of debt dollarization (a notable portion of businesses having income and liabilities in different currencies), it simultaneously increases the competitiveness of exports. [...] In March, the Georgian Lari depreciated against the Dollar by 1.3%, against the Euro by 1%, against the Turkish Lira by 1.6%, and against the Russian Ruble by 0.4% on a monthly basis. [...] The last forecast (the 5th vintage) is published in the first month of the next quarter.