LEADING GDP INDICATOR FORECAST FOR GEORGIA – APRIL 2024 Authors: Tornike Surguladze and Davit Keshelava - National and foreign currency deposits, merchandise trade, and remittances: key

• Based on February data, the annual growth in 2024 is expected to be 7.8% in the worst-case scenario, and 9.4% in the best-case or an average long-term growth scenario. [...] Our models may not fully capture the disruptive effects of the ongoing war in Ukraine, conflict in the Middle East, and other Geopolitical tensions. [...] In February, the Georgian Lari appreciated against the Dollar (0.8% in monthly terms), GEL/EUR (1% in monthly terms), GEL/TRY (3.5% in monthly terms), and Ruble (3.5% in monthly terms). [...] While the appreciation of the Georgian Lari positively impacts the Georgian population due to heavy reliance on imports and significant levels of debt dollarization (a notable portion of businesses having income and liabilities in different currencies), it simultaneously diminishes the competitiveness of exports. [...] The last forecast (the 5th vintage) is published in the first month of the next quarter.