Addressing flow security risks in an age of disruption

Over the course of NATO's 75-year history, deterrence has failed twice. The first time was on September 11, 2001, when al-Qaida attacked the United States. The second occasion was on February 22, 2022, when Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine caught most alliance leaders flat-footed, despite clear warnings from their own intelligence services that an armed incursion was imminent. In both cases, deterrence failed because imagination failed. The 9/11 Commission identified "failure of imagination" as the major reason why the United States was unprepared for the September 11 attacks. And in 2022, many alliance leaders simply couldn't imagine that Russia would actually invade, despite the evidence before them.