Transformative resilience :The key to governing Europe’s sustainability transitions in the polycrisis

The EU's long-term transition to environmental, social and economic sustainability runs alongside several large-scale crises. Amidst the 'triple crisis' of climate change, biodiversity loss and the impact of environmental pollution on human health (UNEP, 2020), we also face crises in the political, economic and social spheres, including the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the 'slowbalisation' of the global economy and trade (European Parliament, 2020) and growing societal fragmentation over values and identities. This complex global condition, often called the polycrisis, influences the EU's sustainability strategies and policies (1). The effects of the polycrisis test the EU's ability to steer and govern its sustainability transitions and to maintain its ability to stay on track towards its sustainability goals and deliver on ambitious objectives and targets. In other words, the resilience of the EU's transitions to sustainability is directly affected by the scale and severity of the polycrisis. The extent to which the polycrisis impacts the making and implementing of the EU's sustainability policies will depend on their capacity to remain truly transformative — while also 'bouncing back' from shocks and potentially anticipating them. How can the EU improve the capacity of its policies to anticipate, adapt to or absorb shocks whilst retaining their transformative intent? How can European policymakers ensure that the polycrisis does not lead to slowing down, diverting or cancelling sustainability transitions? This report addresses these questions by looking closely at the conceptual framework of transformative resilience. Transformative resilience is an emerging concept at the interface of socio-ecological thinking, institutional theory and innovation studies. It is a promising framing for understanding and assessing different aspects of governance, ranging from the absorption of impacts of risks to anticipating a crisis. Furthermore, transformative resilience can help consider the capacity for innovation and transformation during and after a shock. Therefore, this report focuses on the relevance and potential of transformative resilience thinking for policy. It unpacks this concept as a set of different capacities essential to successful governance of transitions under the pressures of the polycrisis.