Achieving the EU's digital transition objectives and policy targets is expected to create significant additional employment in key sectors such as computer programming, research and development, and telecommunications. As digital transformation requires substantial training, job opportunities will also emerge in wholesale and retail trade, and in non-market services, which includes the education and training sector. The productivity-enhancing eect of AI fosters versatility among workers and enables them to engage in more fulfilling activities. Alongside automation, AI will also replace human tasks, leading to shrinking employment, particularly in wholesale and retail trade and construction. The pace of automation and AI deployment is uncertain, as it is influenced by technological readiness, funding availability, regulatory frameworks, social partner dynamics, and other factors. What is certain is that – to navigate the digital transition successfully – substantial investment in human capital via digital skills training is needed, including on AI at all levels.
Authors
- Catalogue number
- TI-02-24-589-EN-N
- Citation
- Cedefop, Digital skills ambitions in action – Cedefop’s skills forecast digitalisation scenario , Publications Office of the European Union, 2024, https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2801/966457
- DOI
- https://data.europa.eu/doi/10.2801/966457
- ISBN
- 978-92-896-3752-7
- Pages
- 46
- Published in
- Belgium
- Themes
- Vocational training , Information technology and telecommunications
Table of Contents
- Foreword 6
- Acknowledgements 7
- 1. CHAPTER 1. 10
- Introduction 10
- 1.1. Skills forecasts in times of transition 10
- 1.2. Digital transition scenario 10
- 2. CHAPTER 2. 12
- Scenario approach and assumptions 12
- 2.1. Introduction 12
- 2.2. Upskilling and reskilling assumptions 12
- 2.3. Digital transition assumptions 14
- 2.4. Funding the digital transition 18
- 3. CHAPTER 3. 19
- How digital transition reshapes the employment outlook 19
- 3.1. Unravelling the effects of digital transition 19
- 3.2. National employment trends 21
- 3.3. Sectoral shifts: impacts and magnitude 23
- 4. CHAPTER 4. 28
- Navigating the digital transition: implications for occupations 28
- 4.1. Exposure of occupations to digitalisation: insights from research 28
- 4.2. Employment trends in occupations at different skills levels 28
- 4.3. Specific occupation employment impact and replacement needs 29
- 5. CHAPTER 5. 35
- Reflection and lessons for policy 35
- References [URLs accessed on 29.3.2024] 36
- Annex 38
- Figure 3. Summary of assumptions and inputs related to AI adoption 18
- Figure 2. Summary of assumptions and inputs related to automation 17
- Figure 1. Summary of assumptions and inputs for upskilling and retraining 14
- Figure 9. Employment impact of the digital transition (difference from baseline in 000s and %) by sector, EU-27 26
- Figure 8. Forecast employment decline by broad sector reflecting the pace of adoption of digital, automation and AI technologies (% difference from baseline) 24
- Figure 7. Forecast employment impact of the digital transition (difference from baseline in %) by broad sector, EU-27 23
- Figure 6. Scenario forecast employment impact of the digital transition by speed of deployment in EU Member States (% difference from baseline) 22
- Figure 5. Scenario employment impact of the digital transition by speed of deployment (% difference from baseline), EU-27 21
- Figure 4. Scenario employment impact of digital transition by sector (difference in ‘000t from baseline), EU-27 20
- Figure 14. Job openings 2021-35 broken down by net change and replacement needs, Elementary occupations, EU-27 33
- Figure 13. Job openings 2021-35 broken down by net change and replacement needs, skilled manual occupations (000s), EU-27 32
- Figure 12. Job openings 2021-35 broken down by net change and replacement needs, skilled non-manual occupations (000s), EU-27 31
- Figure 11. Job openings 2021-35 broken down by net change and replacement needs, high-skilled non-manual occupations (000s), EU-27 30
- Figure 10. Scenario employment impact of digital transition in 2021-35 by skill level (000s), EU-27 29
- Table 1. Digital transition targets and objectives 12
- Table 2. Share of individuals with basic or above basic overall digital skills and number of people requiring training. 13
- Table 3. AI exposure (1) level by occupation 15
- Table 4. Automation risk and generative AI exposure by sector (% of employment): assumptions used in the scenario 16
- Table 5. Elasticity of productivity with respect to AI 17
- Table A.1 Cost of training, per participant and total, by MS 38
- Table A.2. Shares of workers in need of training by sector 39
- Table A.3. Articles reviewed to identify automation risk estimates 41
- Table A.4. Sectors with high computer use by MS, 2019 42
