An Israel-Hezbollah War: The Winners and the Losers SYNOPSIS

An Israel-Hezbollah War: The Winners and the Losers By Huzeir Ezekiel Dzulhisham SYNOPSIS While the world’s attention is fixed on the possibility of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah, an important question is who would be the likely winners and losers in such a war. [...] Yet a pressing issue emerges: what are the geopolitical implications of an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah for the Middle East? Who would be the winners, and who the losers? The Winners in an Israel-Hezbollah War A war between Israel and Hezbollah would benefit the anti-Iran coalition consisting of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). [...] This could potentially pave the way for a lasting Russian military presence in the Middle East and fulfil the broader goal of keeping the US entangled. [...] Importantly, the collapse of the Lebanese political system and power-sharing arrangements codified by the Lebanese National Pact between ethnoreligious groups in the event of an all-out Israel-Hezbollah war could lead to the rise of fragmented, militant sectarianism as Shia, Druze, Sunni and Christian groups fight for control in the wake of the war, much like the struggle between Shia and Sunni mi. [...] Conclusion From this assessment, it is clear that an all-out war between Israel and Hezbollah would benefit the anti-Iran coalitions in the Gulf and Russia while Lebanon and Iran would be the losers.