• ISET-PI forecasts Georgia's economy to grow by 7.9% in the second quarter and 6.1% in the third quarter of 2024. [...] • According to April data, the annual growth in 2024 is projected to be 7.1% in the worst-case scenario and 8.8% in the best-case or average long-term growth scenario. [...] During this period, the import of goods increased by 13.8% year-over-year, driven by an annual increase in the import/re-import of petroleum and petroleum oils (up 100% YoY) and medicaments put up in measured doses (up 57.9% YoY). [...] In April, the Georgian Lari appreciated against the Dollar (0.4% in monthly terms), Euro (1% in monthly terms), Ruble (1.1% in monthly terms), and Turkish lira (0.5% in monthly terms). [...] The last forecast (the 5th vintage) is published in the first month of the next quarter.
Authors
- Pages
- 3
- Published in
- Georgia
Table of Contents
- Page 1 1
- LEADING GDP INDICATOR FORECAST FOR GEORGIA JUNE 2024 1
- Authors Tornike Surguladze and Davit Keshelava 1
- ISET-PI has updated its real GDP growth forecast for the second and third quarters of 2024. Here are the highlights of this months release. 1
- HIGHLIGHTS 1
- Geostat has published its preliminary estimate of real GDP growth for April 2024 which 1
- ISET-PI forecasts Georgias economy to grow by 7.9 in the second quarter and 6.1 in 1
- According to April data the annual growth in 2024 is projected to be 7.1 in the worst-case 1
- Page 2 2
- LEADING GDP INDICATOR FORECAST FOR GEORGIA JUNE 2024 2
- Variables behind the GDP growth forecast based on the April data 2
- National and Foreign Currency Deposits. 2
- Overall national currency deposits had a positive contribution to the real GDP growth forecast. 2
- Total foreign currency deposits increased by 15.9 compared to the same month of the previous year. 2
- Consequently variables related to foreign currency deposits contributed only moderately to the real GDP growth forecast according to our model. 2
- Merchandise Trade. In April Georgias exports experienced a 12.6 annual decrease. 2
- During this period the import of goods increased by 13.8 year-over-year Consequently the trade deficit increased by 32.1 year-over- year amounting to 957 million USD. 2
- Overall trade-related variables had a slight negative influence on the GDP growth forecast. 2
- Remittances. In April remittances decreased by 25.2 year-over-year reaching 278.5 million USD. 2
- Page 3 3
- LEADING GDP INDICATOR FORECAST FOR GEORGIA JUNE 2024 3
- However money transfers still have a slight positive contribution to the growth forecast according to our model. 3
- Exchange Rate. Dollar Euro Ruble Turkish lira REER depreciated by 3.3 yearly. 3
- -related variables had a negative influence on the real GDP growth projections. 3
- Consumer Credit. In April the total volume of commercial banks consumer credit increased by 28.9 year-over-year. 3
- Despite these increases the variables related to consumer credit had a small positive impact on the growth forecast. 3
- Overall CPI-related variables still have had a negative impact on the GDP forecast. 3
