Donald Trump is likely to be elected president again in the 2024 election. His chances have risen precipitously over the last year for several reasons that economist and columnist Tyler Cowen outlines here. Cowen's points are solid as a matter of purely positive analysis and he's correct or at least partly correct about all of them, but crime and disorder should be included. You can group Cowen's reasons and my additions into four broad buckets. To be clear, these are merely theories that attempt to explain why Trump is favored to win, not my positions on the issues or whether the perceptions are justified. One, the economic situation isn't so rosy. Unemployment is low, but inflation, an elevated price level, high housing prices, and increased uncertainty are all destructive. Two, the Democrats overreached on some social issues involving race and transgenderism and they are (mostly rightly) blamed for many of the post-COVID-19 problems with schools. Three, the Democrats are bland and feeble, and the Republicans are much less so. Say what you will about Trump or J.D. Vance, they are far more entertaining and dynamic than President Joe Biden or Vice President Kamala Harris and personality matters more now that so much power is concentrated in the presidency.
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