Myanmar Energy Sector Update: Energy Poverty Amid Plenty

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Table of Contents

• Preface and Acknowledgements 3
• Cover and chapter photographs are the copyright of the World Bank. All rights reserved. 3
• For information about the World Bank and its activities in Myanmar please visit httpswww.worldbank.orgencountrymyanmar 3
• Contents 4
• Preface and Acknowledgements 4
• ............................................................................................................... 3 4
• Context 4
• ...................................................................................................................................................... 5 4
• Hydropower Plants 4
• .................................................................................................................................... 8 4
• Gas Power Plants 4
• .................................................................................................................................... 11 4
• Solar PV and Wind 4
• .................................................................................................................................. 13 4
• Power Imports 4
• ......................................................................................................................................... 14 4
• Off-grid mini-grids 4
• .................................................................................................................................. 15 4
• Conclusion 4
• .............................................................................................................................................. 17 4
• Context 5
• Myanmar is endowed with abundant primary energy resources 5
• The electricity sector in Myanmar is currently grappling with a critical situation marked by severe supply constraints and significant unmet demand 5
• During the period 2015-2021 the electricity sector of Myanmar was on a steady development pathway 5
• Shortly after reaching a historic operational capacity peak load of 3997 MW in May 2021 there has been a steep decline in power production with the departure of foreign investors 5
• The current energy crisis in Myanmar has been worsening since its historic peak load in May 2021. 6
• As of 2024 Myanmars power system relies heavily on hydropower plants 7
• Solar plants contribute a relatively small amount of electricity to the national grid 7
• The sudden surge in utilization of hydroelectric power plants causes safety concerns as it has entailed using older dams more intensely than before. 7
• Despite significant changes in the generation landscape the rules for power dispatch remain the same. 8
• Hydropower Plants 8
• Electricity generation by hydropower plants increased to 9070 GWh in 202223 from 8370 GWh in 202021 although installed capacity remains the same at 3262 MW . 8
• The largest hydropower plant Yeywa 790 MW is steadily operating at around 40-60 percent of installed capacity. 9
• Medium and small hydropower plants are functioning intermittently or not operating reliably 9
• Water management of hydroelectric dams returns to normal. 9
• Hydropower generation capacity addition will continue to be challenging. 10
• Upper Yeywa 280 MW in northern Shan 10
• Upper Kengtawng 51 MW in southern Shan 10
• The development of Namtu 210 MW in northern Shan 10
• Construction progress of Thahtay 111 MW in Rakhine 10
• No progress is observed for Hatgyi 1390 MW 10
• Little progress is observed in the development of other new projects 10
• Gas Power Plants 11
• Electricity generation by gas power plants decreased 11
• Available generation capacity was reduced by 1200 MW driven by the withdrawal of the biggest foreign investor in gas power plants. 11
• The commissioning of a new 135 MW combined cycle gas turbine CCGT power plant in Kyauk Phyu is affected by limited technical support by manufacturers due to international sanctions. 11
• Almost all state-owned gas power plants are idling while privately owned plants generate electricity in varying degrees. 11
• Solar PV and Wind 13
• All six grid-connected solar power plants in Myanmar with a combined capacity of 182 MW have been operating normally. 13
• Despite the effort for rapid solar PV deployment through three rounds of IPP tenders for a total capacity of up to 2150 MW only 142 MW has been commissioned. 13
• While a feed-in tariff for rooftop solar PV was introduced in 2023 it is not expected to contribute effectively to the scale-up of distributed renewable energy. 14
• Feasibility studies for three wind farms in Rakhine were commenced in January 2023 14
• Power Imports 14
• Aiming for regional interconnection Myanmar has been pursuing with neighboring countries for power imports but little progress has been observed so far. 14
• The Chinese and Myanmar transmission grids 14
• India has attempted to advance a regional grid interconnection project through the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation BIMSTEC. 14
• Off-grid mini-grids 15
• Myanmars off-grid electrification sector has been deteriorating due to an overlapping multitude of crises. 15
• The Myanmar National Electrification Plan endorsed in 2015 was the Governments ambitious programmatic action plan to electrify 7.2 million households to achieve universal electricity access by 2030. 15
• Among 93 NEP mini-grids surveyed only 43 located in Ayeyarwaddy and Thanintharyi are accessible 15
• NEP mini-grids demonstrate their ability to provide a reliable power supply and prove resilience amid complex crises. 15
• Although a third of households are not connected yet to the mini-grids demand for electricity has reached up to the maximum capacity of the mini-grids. 15
• The currently fixed electricity tariffs can no longer cover the operation cost of a mini-grid. 16
• The increasing cost of service coupled with fixed electricity tariffs leads to financial difficulties for mini-grid operators. 16
• Conclusion 17
• Myanmar has been encountering energy poverty while electricity production is a fraction of its abundant primary energy resources. 17
• Shortage of electricity supply has been impacting the states and regions in different ways and at different levels of severity. 17
• Mini-grids developed in the past demonstrate resilience as 95 percent of NEP mini-grids continue supplying electricity to rural communities while the 18
• Many of the challenges in the power sector are structural fundamental and linked with political instability conflict and macroeconomic conditions. 18