This report provides a quantification of the households vulnerable to falling into poverty as the result of a shock, as well as a qualitative analysis of the level of adaptability of the current social protection system in Zambia. The analysis is based on the Stress Test Tool developed by the World Bank, which assesses the adaptability of social protection systems and their ability to respond to shocks. The tool consists of two parts that gather valuable information to guide public policies or inform project investments. The first part of the tool evaluates the most relevant sources of risk that are expected to require a large response from the social protection sector and provides an estimate of the number and characteristics of people who would require support in the event of a shock, those vulnerable to poverty. This part of the tool also identifies the main sources of vulnerability: structural or poverty-induced (due to sustained low levels of income/consumption), and risk-induced (due to the exposure to covariate or idiosyncratic shocks). The second part of the tool assesses the capacity of the existing social protection system to scale up rapidly in times of shock, identifying potential constraints and highlighting areas for future investments.This report is divided into 7 chapters. Chapter 2 provides an overview of the country's context and its structural vulnerabilities. The Stress Test Tool that is used to measure the level of adaptiveness of the country's social protection system is presented in Chapter 3. Chapter 4 introduces the conceptual framework for providing a quantifiable measure of those who are vulnerable to poverty in Zambia and presents the results of the quantitative analysis. A brief description of the current structure of the Social Protection System in the country follows in Chapter 5, while Chapter 6 presents the framework to assess the structure of scalability and adaptability of social protection in Zambia and presents the results of the qualitative diagnostic. Finally, Chapter 7 lists the key recommendations emerging from the results of the analyses as well as concluding comments.
Authors
Maria Gabriela Farfan Betran, Gayoso,Lyliana, Tisei,Francesco
- Disclosure Date
- 2024/07/17
- Disclosure Status
- Disclosed
- Doc Name
- Towards a More Adaptive Social Protection System in Zambia
- Lending Instrument
- Investment Project Financing
- Pages
- 84
- Product Line
- IBRD/IDA
- Published in
- United States of America
- Rel Proj ID
- ZM-Scaling-Up Shock Responsive Social Protection Project -- P179095
- TF No/Name
- TF0C4840-SCALING-UP SHOCK RESPONSIVE SOCIAL PROTECTION PROJECT ADDITIONAL FINANC,TF0B8770-Scaling Up Shock Responsive Social Protection,TF0C5190-SSRSP AF2 MDTF REDA
- Unit Owning
- Social Protection & Labor AFR 1 (HAES1)
- Version Type
- Final
- Volume No
- 1
Table of Contents
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- _Hlk129294861 11
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- _Int_ZzDm0ej6 23
- _Int_QXujS9ft 23
- _Int_OS9hogfi 24
- _Hlk131771147 25
- _Ref119662319 26
- _Hlk129295876 30
- _Ref120661007 31
- _Ref124171261 33
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- _Hlk112929541 57
- _Hlk133614965 59
- _Hlk133579618 60
- _Hlk152253914 61
- _Empirical_methods 64
- _Hlk121404889 65
- _Int_fcmgJ08B 65
- _Variables_considered_in 68
- _Int_wW2LqvQL 68
- _Ref129294962 70
- _Ref129295553 70
- _Ref129295547 70
- _Conceptual_Framework_of 70
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- _Hlk152255549 14
- _Hlk152256231 14
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- _Hlk112685991 16
- _Hlk131178534 23
- _Hlk133618198 24
- _Hlk131681859 64
- Acronyms and Abbreviations 3
- Acknowledgements 4
- Executive Summary 5
- CHAPTER 1. Introduction 11
- CHAPTER 2. Country context 13
- 2.1. Current poverty and inequality scenario 13
- 2.2. High susceptibility to shocks 14
- 2.2.1. History of macroeconomic shocks 14
- 2.2.2. History of climate shocks 15
- CHAPTER 3. The Stress Test Tool 17
- 3.1. Stress Test Tool Part 1: Needs Assessment 17
- 3.2. Stress Test Tool Part 2: Scalability and Adaptiveness of Social Protection. 19
- CHAPTER 4. Stress Tool Part 1 – Unpacking Vulnerability to Poverty 21
- 4.1. Conceptual framework 21
- 4.1.1. Modelling 21
- 4.1.2. Data 22
- 4.2. Main Findings 23
- 4.2.1. Geography and profiles 23
- 4.2.2. Exploring the sources of vulnerability 26
- 4.2.3. Covariate and idiosyncratic shocks 28
- 4.2.4. Quantification of scalable needs: poverty-induced plus covariate risks 29
- 4.2.5. Cross-country comparisons 31
- CHAPTER 5. The Zambian Social Protection System 34
- 5.1. Social Protection – Legal and Institutional Framework 34
- 5.2. Social Protection – Key actors 35
- 5.3. Interactions with Disaster Risk Management (DRM) 38
- 5.4. Existing government and non-government led social protection programs 40
- 5.4.1. Social Cash Transfers (SCT) 41
- 5.4.2. Girls’ Education and Women’s Empowerment and Livelihood (GEWEL) Project 44
- 5.4.3. Other Programs 45
- CHAPTER 6. Stress Tool Part 2 - Assessing scalability and adaptiveness of Social Protection in Zambia 47
- 6.1. Framework and approach 47
- 6.2. Building Block 1 – Programs and Delivery/Payment Systems – Score: 2.93/5 47
- 6.3. Building Block 2 – Data and Information – Score: 2.9/5 50
- 6.4. Building Block 3 – Finance – Score: 2.3/5 52
- 6.5. Building Block 4 – Institutions and Partnerships – Score: 2.6/5 53
- 6.6. Overall Scoring 54
- CHAPTER 7. Recommendations and Conclusion 56
- References 59
- Annexes 64
- A. Empirical methods 64
- B. Variables considered in the model 66
- C. Regression models 67
- D. Robustness checks 68
- a. Exploring different vulnerability thresholds 68
- b. Excluding extreme heat risk information from the model 69
- E. Changes in real consumption 2010 - 2015 70
- F. Changes in expected coverage needs for a given poverty threshold 70
- G. Conceptual Framework of Part 1 of the Stress Test 70
- H. Stress Test Questionnaire 73
- Contents 2
