The scenarios, and the inputs and assumptions that apply in each scenario, will be published in the 2025 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report (IASR) and consulted on in accordance with the single stage consultation process outlined in Appendix B of the Australian Energy Regulator’s Forecasting Best Practice Guidelines (FBPG)4. [...] Context of the 2025 IASR scenarios The 2025 IASR scenarios will inform the execution of AEMO’s forecasting and planning functions, including the 2025 ESOO, 2025 GSOO and 2026 ISP. [...] The scenarios include consideration of the role and influence of regulatory, commercial and consumer decisions on the pace and breadth of the energy transition, and the scenario narratives respect both domestic and international influences, such as population growth, © AEMO 2024 Page 6 of 15 2025 IASR Scenarios consumer investments, sector coupling, and emerging green energy opportunities (domesti. [...] © AEMO 2024 Page 7 of 15 2025 IASR Scenarios − Rather than applying a minimum ‘likelihood’ threshold for each individual parameter, plausibility considers the likelihood and significance of the impact of the uncertainties on planning outcomes, and the degree of stakeholder interest. [...] AEMO’s proposed scenarios for the 2025 IASR AEMO recognises the value of scenario continuity in planning processes that are refreshed frequently (annually in many instances), and proposes to broadly retain the scenario collection that was defined in the 2023 IASR.
- Pages
- 15
- Published in
- Australia
Table of Contents
- Explanatory statement 2
- Contents 3
- Tables 3
- 1. Scenario planning and consultation process 4
- 2. Background 6
- 2.1. Context of the 2025 IASR scenarios 6
- 2.2. Scenarios and sensitivities 6
- 3. Evolution of AEMOs scenarios 9
- 3.1. What has changed since the 2023 IASR 9
- 3.2. Stakeholder engagement conducted prior to this consultation 9
- 3.3. AEMOs proposed scenarios for the 2025 IASR 10
- 3.4. Seeking stakeholder feedback on the proposed adjustments 13
- A.1 Glossary 15
