The Effect of COVID-19 Learning Loss on Adult Outcomes: Building a Set of Age-Cohort Projections Using the Social Genome Model

The COVID-19 pandemic will likely leave a lasting mark on America’s students, affecting their future earnings and educational attainment. Using the Social Genome Model (SGM), we project the effects of learning losses equivalent to spending three months out of school would lead to a loss of income at age 30 ranging from 0.7 to 3.5 percent and decrease lifetime earnings 0.4 to 2.0 percent. We also project declines in post-secondary degree attainment. We estimate that female students will experience larger losses of both income and degree attainment, relative to male students within the same racial or ethnic group.