Early Warning Systems in Fragility, Conflict, and Violence-affected Settings: Shielding Communities from Natural Hazards Amid Compounded Crises - World Bank White Paper for EWS Implementation in FCV Settings, 2024

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Table of Contents

• Acknowledgments 6
• Abbreviations and Acronyms 7
• Executive Summary 9
• Purpose 9
• Key findings 10
• Way forward 10
• 1 Introduction 11
• 1.1 Contextualizing the importance of early warning systems for countries and communities affected by fragility, conflict, and violence. 11
• Photo 1.1. Schoolchildren going to a multipurpose cyclone shelter in Barisal, Bangladesh 12
• 1.2 Objectives of this paper 12
• 1.3 Methodology 13
• 1.4 Limitations 15
• Endnotes 15
• 2 The Case for EWS in FCV Settings: Challenges, Adjustments, and an Operational Paradigm Shift 16
• 2.1 Establishing EWS: A review of the traditional framework 16
• 2.1.1 The four pillars of EWS 16
• Figure 2.1. Four pillars of end-to-end, people-centered early warning systems 17
• Figure 2.2. The 10 elements of the classic early warning system value chain 19
• 2.1.2 Key actors of the EWS value chain (national and local levels) 20
• 2.1.3 Cross-cutting challenges of EWS implementation in FCV settings 21
• Table 2.1. Cross-cutting challenges of hydromet and EWS implementation in FCV settings 22
• Endnotes 24
• 2.1.3 Rethinking the traditional methodology: Tailoring solutions and prioritizing the end user 24
• 3. In Practice: Alternative Options for Establishing EWS in FCV Settings 26
• 3.1 Cross-cutting topic: Governance and institutional arrangements 26
• Box 3.1. Navigating Afghanistan’s evolutions 28
• Box 3.2. Integrating non-state actors in EWS: Lessons from Nigeria 29
• Box 3.3. Successes and challenges in Haiti 30
• Box 3.4. Engaging on hydromet and EWS in a war zone: Lessons learned from the Republic of Yemen 31
• 3.2 Pillar I: Disaster risk knowledge 32
• Box 3.5. Flood early warning in South Sudan: Understanding risks and capacity building 33
• Box 3.6. The application of AI-based technologies for understanding food crises in the Sahel 35
• Box 3.7. 3D printing technology in Afghanistan 38
• Box 3.8. Service provision and capacity building: The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System 38
• Box 3.9. Early detection and forecasting of Cyclone Tej in the Republic of Yemen: A case of regional cooperation 39
• 3.4 Pillar III: Warning dissemination and communication 40
• Box 3.10. Lessons learned on inclusive and diversified early warning communication from Mozambique 41
• Photo B3.10.1. An ICS mobile brigade conducts a community mobilization exercise at a fishing village 41
• Box 3.11. Warning dissemination by religious leaders in Afghanistan and Bangladesh 42
• Box 3.12. The need to overcome the social trust challenge in the Republic of Yemen 43
• 3.5 Pillar IV: Preparedness and response capabilities 44
• Box 3.13. Haiti’s hurricane preparedness program 45
• Photo B3.13.1. Music video developed to increase risk awareness 45
• Box 3.14. Traditional leaders’ engagement for COVID-19 response in Nigeria 46
• Box 3.15. Integrating conflict sensitivity into feasibility studies for disaster preparedness projects: Lessons from Mali 46
• Endnotes 46
• 4. Conclusion and Way Forward 47
• 4.1 Summary of key findings 47
• 4.2 Ways forward 48
• Appendixes 50
• Appendix A: List of Consultations 51
• Appendix B: Resources on Risk Data 52
• Appendix C: Case Studies 53
• 1. Leveraging existing institutional frameworks in countries affected by conflict and violence: The case of Niger 53
• 2. Supporting Bangladesh’s institutional resilience amid the Rohingya crisis 54
• 3. A regional approach to observation, monitoring, and forecasting in West Africa (CREWS project) 54
• 4. Integrating disaster preparedness into sectors: Lessons from Honduras 55
• Bibliography 57