China ‘under siege’

The emergence of a more contentious China–US rivalry is a result of both Washington’s China containment strategy and China’s own economic downturn. The relationship between these two great powers, both vying for global influence, is shaped by complex two-way dynamics. China’s continued pursuit of its own economic and scientific self-reliance is likely to only further accentuate competition with the US. While much has been written about hardening US perceptions of China, there is limited available analysis on Beijing’s own shift in strategic thinking under intensifying China–US competition. This paper aims to highlight the significant changes in Chinese strategic thinking and their implications for Beijing’s US policy. The paper concentrates on four particularly thorny issues – the struggle over the global order, economic security, regional flashpoints including Taiwan and the South China Sea, and the war in Ukraine – that reflect the breadth of contestation between the two countries and their increasingly fraught relationship. Despite the centralization of foreign policy decision-making under Xi Jinping, Chinese leaders still seek a range of expertise from the country’s wider strategic community – including academics, policy experts and former officials – to inform decision-making. As a result, these voices still have perceptible impacts on final policy outcomes. Beijing’s US policy is always a product of China’s own evaluations of events at home and abroad. So, while Washington’s policy to contain China is an important factor in the latter’s approach to the US, the more critical components of China’s US policy are domestic politics, the country’s long-term economic prosperity and, ultimately, national survival.