The report illustrates the results of a series of simulations of the spread of COVID-19 disease in refugee camps using a demo set of data from the Za'atari refugee camp in Jordan. The purpose of this exercise is to illustrate the type of information that can assist the UNHCR and camps' administrators in preparing for a COVID-19 outbreak. These findings warn against complacency with the low numbers of COVID-19 infected persons currently observed in Jordan and Bangladesh. Once the virus enters the camp, the simulations and our study show that the virus can spread quickly and widely, potentially reaching over 90 percent of the population. Thanks to the age and gender profile of the camps, the number of hospitalizations and deaths will be low relatively to older populations, but the numbers may still overwhelm hospitals and health care facilities. In this respect, preventive measures such as building COVID-19 field hospitals as in the Za'atari refugee camp should be supported and not regarded as excessive measures.
Authors
Hernandez Suarez,Carlos Moises, Verme,Paolo, Radyakin,Sergiy
- Disclosure Date
- 2024/07/25
- Disclosure Status
- Disclosed
- Doc Name
- COVID-19 Outbreaks in Refugee Camps : A Simulation Study
- Pages
- 57
- Product Line
- Advisory Services & Analytics
- Published in
- United States of America
- Rel Proj ID
- 1W-Forced Displacement: Policy Focused Analytics For Operational S -- P163402
- TF No/Name
- TF0A4641-FD Analytics
- Unit Owning
- Strategy, Analytics, Fin. Solut. (GTFS1)
- Version Type
- Final
- Volume No
- 1
Table of Contents
- Summary 5
- The SIZ model 11
- Compartments 11
- Parameters 13
- Comments on the model and parameters 14
- The Deterministic Solution of the Model 15
- Transitions between compartments 15
- The differential equations 16
- Adjusted lethality by age group and gender 17
- Adjusted lethality in the Za'atari refugee camp 19
- The parameters p, q and w 20
- Estimation of the exit rates i 21
- Infected symptomatic (I) 21
- Infected asymptomatic (Z) 22
- Hospitalized (H) 22
- Intensive care unit (C) 22
- Temporary quarantined (RT) 22
- Estimation of and R0 22
- The role of demographics and control policies on the parameters 27
- Sensitivity analysis 31
- Summary of parameters for the Za'atari camp estimations 32
- The Stochastic Solution of the Model 33
- Time to event simulation 34
- Accelerating the simulations 36
- Matching the mean and variance in stochastic simulations 37
- Results - Deterministic model 44
- Results - Stochastic Model 49
