Country summary
The rate of average annual temperature increase in Chile has accelerated in recent decades, at a rate of 0.18°C per decade from 1981‑2022. Climate projections show that this warming will continue, with significant regional variation. Increased temperatures are likely to contribute to a shift in seasonal peak electricity demand due to the changes in climate and demand patterns. Rising temperatures would decrease the peak electricity demand during winter, while increasing it in summer with the proliferation of cooling technologies.Precipitation is projected to continue to decline, leading to more frequent or intense droughts, although the level of changes in precipitation may vary across the country. These precipitation changes could have adverse impacts on major electricity generation technologies, notably hydro and thermal power generation. IEA models project that Chile’s hydropower capacity factor may decline by around 14% in a low-emissions scenario (Below 2°C) and by around 25% under a high-emissions scenario (Above 3°C) by the end of the century. Thermal power plants, which account for over 40% of electricity generation in Chile, will also be affected by decreases in precipitation levels. Drought can limit the availability of cooling water for coal and gas power plants. Decreasing precipitation may also raise concerns about water-intensive mining for lithium and copper production.Chile has been pioneering in adaptation and resilience efforts at a national level and, in particular, in the energy sector. Two major policies, Chile’s Framework Law on Climate Change and the General Law of Electric Services, led Chile’s mitigation and adaptation actions in the energy sector. Under these two pillars, Chile’s 2050 National Energy Policy (updated version published in 2022), identifies resilience as a key priority. Continuing the efforts towards climate-resilient energy systems, Chile is currently working on updating the Climate Change Adaptation Sectoral Plan for the Energy Sector, mandated by the Climate Change Framework Law, which was first published in 2018. Chile has also made progress in developing climate impact models, and mainstreaming climate resilience consideration in other relevant policies, such as infrastructure and disaster risk reduction policies.Chile can further improve its climate resilience policies by supporting energy industry’s climate risk assessments in their initial stage; diversifying energy sources with an increasing share of renewable energy technologies such as solar and wind; and continued alignment among energy and climate policies on climate resilience.
