The Potential of Zero-Carbon Bunker Fuels in Developing Countries

Across the maritime industry, there is general agreement that shipping must undergo a rapid energy transition. This implies a shift from fossil bunker fuels, such as the predominant heavy fuel oil (HFO), to a new generation of alternative bunker fuels. These alternative fuels are known to produce very low, and ultimately zero, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions during their production, distribution, and use. They are called zero-carbon bunker fuels and encompass fuels which are "effectively zero" (that is, where the fuel is produced from zero-carbon electricity, for instance, hydrogen produced from solar or wind power), or “net-zero” (that is, where the production of the fuel removes a quantity of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere equivalent to that emitted during combustion, such as with biofuels). Such zero-carbon bunker fuels have been identified as the primary pathway for the sector to meet the climate targets set by the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) Initial GHG Strategy in 2018. These targets set out to contribute to the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals by committing international shipping to reduce GHG emissions from ships by at least 50 percent in absolute terms by 2050 compared to 2008 levels—with the clear ambition to exceed this target, if possible—and to phase out GHG emissions from ships entirely as soon as possible in this century. Given this minimum GHG reduction target for 2050 and the expectation that the scale of maritime trade will grow in that timeframe, the development of zero-carbon bunker fuels represents an imperative for the maritime industry if the climate targets set by the IMO are to be achieved.