Coherent Identifier About this item: 20.500.12592/dzgtfb

Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, No. 19, Spring 2021 : Subdued Recovery

27 April 2021

Summary

In 2020 COVID-19 (coronavirus) plunged the Western Balkan countries, like the rest of the world, into deep recession. Economic activity contracted by an estimated 3.4 percent - the worst downturn on record. The primary causes were the drop in both domestic and foreign demand and disruptions in supply chains, especially early in the year when activity in a number of sectors simply shut down. Countries like Montenegro that have a services or tourism-oriented economy, and those where more stringent containment measures and lockdowns were imposed fared the worst. The economy began to reactivate in Q3 2020, supported by a partial easing of stringent lockdowns and the revival of global demand as vaccine development advanced. However, in late 2020 restrictions were renewed in response to a resurgence of infections across most of the region; they have kept the recovery subdued. The crisis has led to significant job losses and interruptions in welfare improvements, but the labor market is rebounding from the troughs of the recession. As noted in the Fall 2020 Regular Economic Report (RER), the pandemic halted a decade of progress in boosting incomes and reducing poverty: Since its start 139,000 jobs have been lost and between 165,000 and 336,000 people in theregion were pushed into poverty. However, job support schemes and other government measures limited the labor market fallout and helped to prevent steeper spikes in poverty. By yearend, the labor market had recovered half its pandemic losses, but large numbers of people are still unemployed, and many dropped out of the labor force discouraged by the poor economic prospects. Moreover, workers with less education, women, youth, those in contact-intensive sectors, and those informally employed have suffered disproportionate livelihood and income losses.

Authors

Files

Subdued-Recovery.txt
391.7 KB English

Tags

covid-19 coronavirus economic recovery poverty labor market inflation economic growth economic recession economic outlook informality pandemic response fiscal support social protections and labor :: labor markets macroeconomics and economic growth :: economic growth poverty reduction :: inequality poverty reduction :: employment and shared growth macroeconomics and economic growth :: fiscal & monetary policy macroeconomics and economic growth :: business cycles and stabilization policies health, nutrition and population :: disease control & prevention pandemic impact covid-19 vaccination external imbalances

Collection(s)
Economic Updates and Modeling
Googlescholar linkpresent
yes
Identifier externaldocumentum
090224b08852901c_1_0
Identifier internaldocumentum
33026438
Region country
Albania
Report
158538
UNIT
EFI-ECA-MTI-MacroFiscal-2 (EECM2)
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/10986/35509
citation
“World Bank. 2021. Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, No. 19, Spring 2021 : Subdued Recovery . World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/35509 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
date disclosure
2021-04-26
region administrative
Europe and Central Asia
region geographical
Eastern Europe
Rights
CC BY 3.0 IGO
Rights Holder
World Bank

Topics