To evaluate the effects of changes in climate on poverty, the maximum temperature anomalies in winter and summer as well as the precipitation anomaly for the year prior to the HEICS are computed as standardized deviations from the historical averages over the period 1950-2020. [...] Panel (d) also depicts the distribution of the maximum summer temperature anomalies relative to the average maximum summer temperatures in the period 1950-2020, highlighting higher deviations in Greater Cairo and east of the Delta in addition to Aswan in the south of Egypt. [...] In the above model, π½π½1(π‘π‘),π½π½2(π‘π‘) and π½π½3(π‘π‘) are the functional regression coefficients measuring the cumulative effects of the climate variablesβ profiles on poverty and πΎπΎππ are the coefficients of the scalar explanatory variables in the model. [...] The climatological variables include the average maximum temperature and total precipitation in the year prior to the HEICS, in addition to the maximum summer and winter temperatures and total precipitation anomalies in the same year relative to the historical averages. [...] A Scatter Plot of the Observed Poverty Rates vs the Corresponding Fitted Values from the Functional Linear Model Before fitting the designated GWR model, the bandwidth defining the scale of variability of the different relationships in the model is selected based on AIC, as explained in the methodology section.
Authors
- Pages
- 21
- Published in
- Egypt
Table of Contents
- Working Paper No. 1710 2
- August 2024 2
- Send correspondence to 2
- Keywords JEL Classifications 4
- 1. Introduction and Background 5
- 2. Data 7
- 0.5 0.5 7
- Figure 1 8
- Table 1. Summary Statistics of the Response and Explanatory Variables 9
- 3. Methodology 9
- π₯π₯ π‘π‘ ππ 10
- ππ π‘π‘ ππ ππ π‘π‘ ππ 123 ππππππ ππ 12 365 10
- ππ π‘π‘ ππ ππ πΎπΎ 10
- ππ ππ ππ ππ 10
- ππ ππ 10
- ππ π½π½ π½π½ π‘π‘ππππππππππ π‘π‘ 11
- πππ‘π‘ π½π½ π‘π‘ππππππππππ π‘π‘πππ‘π‘ 11
- π½π½ π‘π‘ππππππππππππ π‘π‘πππ‘π‘ 11
- πΎπΎ π§π§ ππ ππ ππ0 ππ 11
- ππ ππ ππππππππππ π‘π‘ ππππππππππ π‘π‘ ππππππππππππ π‘π‘ ππ π§π§ ππ ππ π½π½ π‘π‘ π½π½ π‘π‘ π½π½ π‘π‘ πΎπΎ 11
- ππ πΌπΌ π’π’ π£π£ πΌπΌ π’π’ π£π£ 11
- π₯π₯ ππ 11
- π’π’ π£π£ ππ π·π· π π ππ ππ πΌπΌ ππ ππ 1 1 πΆπΆπ’π’ π£π£ π’π’ π£π£ 11
- πΆπΆπ’π’ π£π£ πΏπΏ ππ ππ ππ ππ ππ 11
- πΏπΏ ππ ππ 1 ππ ππ ππ ππ 1 ππ 11
- ππ π’π’ π£π£ ππ ππ ππ ππ πΎπΎ. 12
- πΎπΎππ exp ππ 12
- ππ ππ ππ β 12
- 4. Results and Discussion 12
- Figure 3 13
- Table 2. Estimated Regression Coefficients of the Scalar Covariates in the Functional Linear Model 13
- Variable Coefficient Estimate 13
- Standard Error Lower Limit of 13
- 95 C.I. 13
- Upper Limit of 13
- 95 C.I. 13
- Figure 4. A Scatter Plot of the Observed Poverty Rates vs the Corresponding Fitted Values from the Functional Linear Model 14
- Figure 6 17
- 5. Conclusions 17
- References 19
