Do economic changes affect the political preferences of Arabs in Israel?

The political power of this union can be seen in the sharp decrease in turnout and vote share for Arab parties that occurred in the April 2019 elections when the List had split, and the recovery of the turnout in September 2019 when the List reunited. [...] An increase of one standard deviation in the dependency ratio is associated with a change of -6.94 pp in the vote share of Arab parties and a change of 2.78 pp in the vote share of other parties and 4.26 pp in the vote share of all Zionist parties. [...] An increase of one standard deviation in the share of income maintenance recipients is associated with a change of 4.04 pp in the share of Nonvoters and -2.64 pp and -3.2 pp in the vote share of other parties and Zionist parties, respectively. [...] Our model explains much of the variation in the Nonvoters share and in the vote share of Zionist left parties, but little of the variation in the vote share of Arab parties and other parties. [...] The first is that the demographic transition, as indicated by an increase in the median age and a decrease in the dependency ratio, is associated with the abandonment of Zionist parties, especially the Zionist left.