Place-based drivers and effective management of population growth and change in regional

Table of Contents

• List of tables 5
• List of figures 5
• List of boxes 5
• Acronyms and abbreviations used in this report 6
• Executive summary 7
• 1. Introduction 11
• 1.1 Population change in non-metropolitan Australia 12
• 1.1.1 Migration and non-metropolitan areas 12
• 1.1.2 Non-metropolitan urban centres of high population change 13
• 1.1.3 Place-based drivers of migration in and out of non-metropolitan areas 14
• 1.1.4 Impacts of COVID-19 and other recent events 15
• 1.2 Policy approaches to encourage population growth in regional Australia 16
• 1.3 Challenges of managing changing populations 16
• 1.4 Research questions 17
• 1.5 Research methods 18
• 2. Modelling factors associated with population change in non-metropolitan areas 21
• 2.1 Identified variables impacting population change from an international literature review 22
• 2.2 Analysis of variables 23
• 2.2.1 Variable transformations 23
• 2.2.2 Multi-collinearity 23
• 2.2.3 Multiple regression model 23
• 2.3 Implications for policy development 27
• 3. Place-based factors of population change: a community survey approach 29
• 3.1 Case study area profiles 30
• 3.1.1 Port Macquarie Hastings 30
• 3.1.2 Ballarat 31
• 3.1.3 Broken Hill 32
• 3.2 Characteristics of movers to case study areas 33
• 3.2.1 Port Macquarie Hastings 33
• 3.2.2 Ballarat 34
• 3.2.3 Broken Hill 36
• 3.3 Reasons for moving to case study areas 37
• 3.3.1 Reasons for moving by movers’ characteristics 43
• 3.3.2 Government and industry incentives to move to case study areas 45
• 3.3.3 Impact of recent events on reasons to move to case study areas 46
• 3.4 Likelihood and potential reasons for moving from case study areas 49
• 3.4.1 Likelihood of moving from case study areas 49
• 3.4.2 Characteristics of people most likely to move 49
• 3.4.3 Where movers from case study areas would potentially move to 50
• 3.4.4 Potential reasons for moving from case study areas 50
• 3.5 Policy implications 52
• 4. Managing population change: interviews with local government and economic development stakeholders 53
• 4.1 Challenges related to population change 54
• 4.1.1 Infrastructure 54
• 4.1.2 Facilities and services 55
• 4.1.3 Housing and planning 56
• 4.1.4 Key worker attraction and retention 58
• 4.2 Solutions to managing population change 58
• 4.2.1 Infrastructure and service upgrades 58
• 4.2.2 Housing and planning solutions 60
• 4.2.3 Upskilling and key worker attraction 62
• 4.3 Key implications for managing population change 64
• 5. Conclusions and policy development options for non-metropolitan Australia 65
• 5.1 How can regional pull factors be strengthened and push factors be addressed? 65
• 5.1.1 Employment, jobs growth and economic development 66
• 5.1.2 Promoting and maintaining place-specific lifestyle and amenity attributes 66
• 5.1.3 Enhancing local infrastructure and services 66
• 5.1.4 Increasing housing and rental stock and diversity, and ensuring housing affordability 67
• 5.1.5 Key and skilled worker attraction and retention 68
• 5.2 How can population growth and change be managed effectively? 69
• 5.2.1 Timing and preparedness 69
• 5.2.2 Coordination and cooperation of place-based interventions 69
• 5.3 Final remarks and further research 70
• References 71
• Appendix 1: Justification for case study LGA selection 78
• Appendix 2: Rationale and data sources for included variables 79
• Appendix 3: Justification for excluded variables 82
• Appendix 4: Variance inflation factors 83
• Appendix 5: Example survey (Ballarat) 85
• Table 1: Research questions, data sources and methodology 18
• Table 2: List of interview participants, position title and/or organisational affiliation 20
• Table 3: Explanatory variables identified in the Australian and international literature used in modelling 22
• Table 4: OLS regression results, 2011–16 model 24
• Table 5: OLS regression results, 2016–21 model 26
• Table 6: Selected characteristics, Port Macquarie Hastings LGA 31
• Table 7: Selected characteristics, Ballarat LGA 32
• Table 8: Selected characteristics, Broken Hill LGA 33
• Table 9: Grants and incentives for moving to each LGA noted by survey respondents 46
• Table 10: Number of survey respondents who were influenced by recent events to move to the case study areas 47
• Figure 1: Map of case study LGAs (italics) relative to nearest Australian capital cities (bold) 30
• Figure 2: Comparison of length of residence in Port Macquarie Hastings LGA of survey sample versus Census 2021 33
• Figure 3: Count of location prior to moving to Port Macquarie Hastings LGA (movers only) (n = 399) 34
• Figure 4: Comparison of length of residence in Ballarat LGA of survey sample versus residents in Census 2021 34
• Figure 5: Count of location prior to moving to Ballarat LGA (movers only) (n = 350) 35
• Figure 6: Comparison of length of residence in Broken Hill of survey sample versus residents in Census 2021 36
• Figure 7: Count of location prior to moving to Broken Hill LGA (movers only) (n = 263) 36
• Figure 8: Percentage of total movers to each case study area by stated reason for moving 37
• Figure 9: Count of responses from movers only to ‘I/we moved to Port Macquarie ...’ (n = 397–399) 40
• Figure 10: Count of responses from movers only to ‘I/we moved to Ballarat ...’ (n = 346–350) 41
• Figure 11: Count of responses from movers only to ‘I/we moved to Broken Hill ...’ (n = 261–263) 42
• Figure 12: Percentage of movers to Port Macquarie Hastings LGA from capital cities versus regional areas by stated reasons for moving (n = 399) 43
• Figure 13: Percentage of movers to Ballarat LGA from capital city versus regional areas by stated reasons for moving (n = 350) 44
• Figure 14: Where respondents stated they were likely to move to by case study area 50
• Figure 15: Percentage of total respondents to each case study area by stated potential reasons for leaving 51
• Box 1: Welcome Experience Program 63