7 September 2020
The exception is for some parts of CQ where the expected yield outcomes are similar to the long-term average. [...] The recent pattern of the SOI, “consistently positive” at the end of August, indicates an increased chance for above average rainfall in most other parts of the state’s cropping region over the next 3- months (www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au). [...] The benchmark for this outlook is the simulated long-term median shire wheat yield within the broad cropping region of Queensland (Map 1). [...] The percentile and percentage departure of the forecast median for this season from the long-term median shire wheat yield are given in Maps 2 & 3. [...] Widespread above the end of the wheat crop the year before average rainfall during the next month is needed to prevent the sowing in order to account for the outlook deteriorating further at shire and regional scales.