8 May 2020
The recent pattern of the SOI, “near zero” for the March-April period, indicates a slightly reduced chance for above average rainfall in most parts of the state’s winter cropping region over the next 3-months (www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au). [...] The current state wheat outlook, at this very early stage in the season, Map 3: Probability of exceeding the long-term varies across most of the state’s cropping area. [...] It should be noted that at this stage of the season, there is a wide range of likely yield outcomes for the 2020 season (see State Outlook section) as all of the growing season remains in the projected forecast. [...] Updating of actual climate and thus shortening of the forecast period will cause the range of yield outcomes to narrow towards the final realised yield at the end of the season. [...] The SOI phase of ”near predicting the shire wheat yields for the zero” at end of April indicates a slightly reduced chance for above 2000 season (MI) was 0.8 across all main average rainfall in most parts of the state’s cropping region rainfall wheat producing shires in Australia over the next 3-months.